Iran ceasefire: trust will be vital but it’s in short supply right now
Iran feels that the US has repeatedly betrayed its trust in the diplomatic process.
Iran feels that the US has repeatedly betrayed its trust in the diplomatic process.
It signals a departure from the approach of the Starmer government.
An oil surplus means that so far reaction has been muted – but disruption and rising prices could still be on the cards.
There may be a pause in hostilities, but a long-term settlement is still a long way off.
Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure are part of a broader strategy the regime in Tehran has employed to try and ensure its survival.
And a US blockade of the strait of Hormuz is unlikely to ease the situation.
The current pattern of short-term ceasefires with fragile extensions is likely to continue.
The US president does not have a convincing story to tell about the Iran confict.
Israel has upped the intensity of its campaign in Lebanon, despite the signing of a ceasefire in the Middle East.
Due to its position of influence over Iran, China will be a leading factor in whether the war ends or spills back into open conflict.