Applying 2025 election preference flows would give Labor below a 51–49 lead over the Coalition, their worst result since their re-election in 2025.
Articles on 2026 South Australian election
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The government is yet to see any major backlash in the polls over the fuel crisis, with most voters blaming Donald Trump instead.
Opposition to the Iran war is very strong in Australia, but so far the government has not been damaged by it in the polls.
One Nation’s recent rise is partly because Australians have been growing more comfortable in voting for a minor party that has advanced specific issues.
Taylor is in desperate need of a strategy to counter One Nation.
It’s highly likely the One Nation insurgency is here to stay.
Labor is set to win the South Australian election easily. But there is much interest in how One Nation and the Liberals will fare.
The laws are time-consuming and labour-intensive to uphold. But their mere presence can elevate the tone of political campaigns.
One of the Victorian polls has Labor ahead on primary votes, while the other says it’s the Liberals in the lead. In NSW, Labor is out in front.
Labor is expected to be returned in power in a landslide. But the election is also the first test of One Nation’s ability to turn its surging popularity into seats.
While the Malinauskas government is expected to easily be returned to power, there will be much interest in the right-of-centre parties’ performance.
As One Nation continues to surge at the expense of the Liberals, there is a chance the Liberals will win no lower house seats at the March 21 election.
Top contributors
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Associate Professor, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Associate Lecturer in Public Policy, Flinders University
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Senior Tutor, School of Social and Political Sciences, The University of Melbourne
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Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations, School of Social Sciences, Monash University