{"id":78814,"date":"2025-11-05T23:30:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T04:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/world.edu\/?p=78814"},"modified":"2025-11-05T23:30:26","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T04:30:26","slug":"could-a-grey-swan-event-bring-down-the-ai-revolution-here-are-3-risks-we-should-be-preparing-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/could-a-grey-swan-event-bring-down-the-ai-revolution-here-are-3-risks-we-should-be-preparing-for\/","title":{"rendered":"Could a \u2018grey swan\u2019 event bring down the AI revolution? Here are 3 risks we should be preparing for"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

The term \u201cblack swan\u201d refers to a shocking event on nobody\u2019s radar until it actually happens. This has become a byword in\u00a0risk analysis<\/a>\u00a0since a\u00a0book called The Black Swan<\/a>\u00a0by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2007. A frequently cited example is the 9\/11 attacks.<\/p>\n

Fewer people have heard of \u201cgrey swans<\/a>\u201d. Derived from\u00a0Taleb\u2019s work<\/a>, grey swans are rare but more foreseeable events. That is, things we know could have a massive impact, but we don\u2019t (or won\u2019t) adequately prepare for.<\/p>\n

COVID was a good example: precedents for a global pandemic existed, but the world was caught off guard anyway.<\/p>\n

Although he sometimes\u00a0uses the term<\/a>, Taleb doesn\u2019t appear to be a big fan of grey swans. He\u2019s previously\u00a0expressed frustration<\/a>\u00a0that his concepts are often misused, which can lead to\u00a0sloppy thinking<\/a>\u00a0about the deeper issues of truly unforeseeable risks.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s hard to deny there is a spectrum of predictability, and it\u2019s easier to see some major shocks coming. Perhaps nowhere is this more obvious than in the world of artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n

Putting our eggs in one basket<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Increasingly, the future of the global economy and\u00a0human thriving<\/a>\u00a0has become tied to a single technological story: the AI revolution. It has turned\u00a0philosophical questions about risk<\/a>\u00a0into a multitrillion-dollar dilemma about how we align ourselves with possible futures.<\/p>\n

US tech company Nvidia, which dominates the market for AI chips,\u00a0recently surpassed US$5 trillion (about A$7.7 trillion)<\/a>\u00a0in market value. The \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d US tech stocks \u2013 Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla \u2013 now make up\u00a0about 40% of the S&P 500 stock index<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The impact of a collapse for these companies \u2013 and a stock market bust \u2013 would be devastating at a global level, not just financially but also in terms of dashed\u00a0hopes for progress<\/a>.<\/p>\n

AI\u2019s grey swans<\/strong><\/h4>\n

There are three broad categories of risk \u2013 beyond the economic realm \u2013 that could bring the AI euphoria to an abrupt halt. They\u2019re grey swans because we can see them coming but arguably don\u2019t (or won\u2019t) prepare for them.<\/p>\n

1. Security and terror shocks<\/strong><\/p>\n

AI\u2019s ability to generate code, malicious plans and convincing fake media makes it\u00a0a force multiplier for bad actors<\/a>. Cheap, open models could help design drone swarms, toxins or cyber attacks.\u00a0Deepfakes<\/a>\u00a0could spoof military commands or spread panic through fake broadcasts.<\/p>\n

Arguably, the closest of these risks to a \u201cwhite swan\u201d \u2013 a foreseeable risk with relatively predictable consequences \u2013 stems from\u00a0China\u2019s aggression toward Taiwan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s biggest AI firms depend heavily on\u00a0Taiwan\u2019s semiconductor industry<\/a>\u00a0for the manufacture of advanced chips. Any conflict or blockade would freeze global progress overnight.<\/p>\n

2. Legal shocks<\/strong><\/p>\n

Some AI firms have already been sued for allegedly using text and images scraped from the internet to train their models.<\/p>\n

One of the best-known examples is the ongoing case of\u00a0The New York Times versus OpenAI<\/a>, but there are\u00a0many similar disputes<\/a>\u00a0around the world.<\/p>\n

If a major court were to rule that such use counts as commercial exploitation, it could unleash enormous damages claims from publishers, artists and brands.<\/p>\n

A few landmark legal rulings could force major AI companies to press pause on developing their models further \u2013 effectively halting the AI build-out.<\/p>\n

3. One breakthrough too many: innovation shocks<\/strong><\/p>\n

Innovation is usually celebrated, but for companies investing in AI, it could be fatal. New AI technology that autonomously\u00a0manipulates markets<\/a>\u00a0(or even news that one is already doing so) would make current financial security systems obsolete.<\/p>\n

And an advanced, open-source, free AI model could easily vaporise the profits of today\u2019s industry leaders. We got a glimpse of this possibility in January\u2019s\u00a0DeepSeek dip<\/a>, when details about a relatively cheaper, more efficient AI model developed in China caused US tech stocks to plummet.<\/p>\n

Why we struggle to prepare for grey swans<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Risk analysts, particularly in finance, often talk in terms of historical data. Statistics can give a reassuring\u00a0illusion of consistency and control<\/a>. But the future doesn\u2019t always behave like the past.<\/p>\n

The wise among us\u00a0apply reason to carefully confirmed facts<\/a>\u00a0and are sceptical of market\u00a0narratives<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Deeper causes are psychological: our minds encode things\u00a0efficiently<\/a>, often relying on one\u00a0symbol<\/a>\u00a0to represent very complex phenomena.<\/p>\n

It takes us a long time to remodel our representations of the world into believing a looming big risk is worth taking action over \u2013 as we\u2019ve seen with the world\u2019s\u00a0slow response to climate change<\/a>.<\/p>\n

How can we deal with grey swans?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Staying aware of risks is important. But what matters most isn\u2019t prediction. We need to design for a deeper sort of resilience that Taleb calls \u201cantifragility<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Taleb argues systems should be built to withstand \u2013 or even benefit from \u2013 shocks, rather than rely on perfect foresight.<\/p>\n

For policymakers, this means ensuring regulation, supply chains and institutions are built to survive a range of major shocks. For individuals, it means diversifying our bets, keeping options open and resisting the illusion that history can tell us everything.<\/p>\n

Above all, the biggest problem with the AI boom is its speed. It is reshaping the global risk landscape faster than we can chart its grey swans. Some may collide and cause\u00a0spectacular destruction<\/a>\u00a0before we can react.<\/p>\n

Author Bio:<\/strong> Cameron Shackell is a Sessional Academic, School of Information Systems at the Queensland University of Technology <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The term \u201cblack swan\u201d refers to a shocking event on nobody\u2019s radar until it actually happens. This has become a byword in\u00a0risk analysis\u00a0since a\u00a0book called The Black Swan\u00a0by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2007. A frequently cited example is the 9\/11 attacks. Fewer people have heard of \u201cgrey swans\u201d. Derived from\u00a0Taleb\u2019s work, grey swans […]\n… learn more→<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[434804],"tags":[],"coauthors":[11733],"class_list":["post-78814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCould a \u2018grey swan\u2019 event bring down the AI revolution? 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This has become a byword in\u00a0risk analysis\u00a0since a\u00a0book called The Black Swan\u00a0by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2007. A frequently cited example is the 9\/11 attacks. Fewer people have heard of \u201cgrey swans\u201d. 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