{"id":76663,"date":"2025-04-25T00:10:05","date_gmt":"2025-04-25T04:10:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/world.edu\/?p=76663"},"modified":"2025-04-25T00:10:05","modified_gmt":"2025-04-25T04:10:05","slug":"memes-and-conflict-study-shows-surge-of-imagery-and-fakes-can-precede-international-and-political-violence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/memes-and-conflict-study-shows-surge-of-imagery-and-fakes-can-precede-international-and-political-violence\/","title":{"rendered":"Memes and conflict: Study shows surge of imagery and fakes can precede international and political violence"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Imagine a country with deep political divisions, where different groups don\u2019t trust each other and violence seems likely. Now, imagine a flood of political images, hateful memes and mocking videos from domestic and foreign sources taking over social media. What is likely to happen next?<\/p>\n

The widespread use of social media during times of political trouble and violence has made it harder to prevent conflict and build peace. Social media is changing, with new technologies and strategies available to influence what people think during political crises. These include\u00a0new ways to promote beliefs and goals<\/a>,\u00a0gain support<\/a>,\u00a0dehumanize opponents<\/a>,\u00a0justify violence<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0create doubt<\/a>\u00a0or dismiss inconvenient facts.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the\u00a0technologies themselves are becoming more sophisticated<\/a>. More and more, social media campaigns use images such as memes, videos and photos \u2013 whether edited or not \u2013 that have a bigger impact on people than just text.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s harder for AI systems to understand images compared with text. For example, it\u2019s easier to track posts that say \u201cUkrainians are Nazis\u201d than it is to find and understand fake images\u00a0showing Ukrainian soldiers with Nazi symbols<\/a>. But these kinds of images are becoming more common. Just as a picture is worth a thousand words, a meme is worth a thousand tweets.<\/p>\n

Our team of\u00a0computer<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0social scientists<\/a>\u00a0has tackled the challenge of interpreting image content by combining artificial intelligence methods with human subject matter experts to study how visual social media posts change in high-risk situations. Our research shows that these changes in social media posts, especially those with images, serve as\u00a0strong indicators of coming mass violence<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Surge of memes<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Our recent analysis found that in the two weeks leading up to Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion of Ukraine there was a\u00a0nearly 9,000% increase in the number of posts<\/a>\u00a0and a more than 5,000% increase in manipulated images from\u00a0Russian milbloggers<\/a>. Milbloggers are bloggers who focus on current military conflicts.<\/p>\n

These huge increases show how intense Russia\u2019s online propaganda campaign was and how it used social media to influence people\u2019s opinions and justify the invasion.<\/p>\n

This also shows the need to better monitor and analyze visual content on social media. To conduct our analysis, we collected the entire history of posts and images from the accounts of 989 Russian milbloggers on the messaging app Telegram. This includes nearly 6 million posts and over 3 million images. Each post and image was time-stamped and categorized to facilitate detailed analysis.<\/p>\n

Media forensics<\/strong><\/h4>\n

We had previously developed a suite of\u00a0AI tools<\/a>\u00a0capable of detecting image alterations and manipulations. For instance, one detected image shows a\u00a0pro-Russian meme<\/a>\u00a0mocking anti-Putin journalist and former Russian soldier Arkady Babchenko, whose death was faked by Ukrainian security services to expose an assassination plot against him.<\/p>\n

\"\"

This pro-Russian meme mocks anti-Putin journalist Arkady Babchenko.The text on the shirt was inserted into the photo and Babchenko\u2019s head appears to be inserted onto someone else\u2019s body. AI tools identify alterations in the image. iFunny<\/p><\/div>\n

The meme features the language \u201cgamers don\u2019t die, they respawn,\u201d alluding to video game characters who return to life after dying. This makes light of Babchenko\u2019s predicament and illustrates the use of manipulated images to convey political messages and influence public opinion.<\/p>\n

This is just one example out of\u00a0millions of images<\/a>\u00a0that were strategically manipulated to promote various narratives. Our statistical analysis revealed a massive increase in both the number of images and the extent of their manipulations prior to the invasion.<\/p>\n

Political context is critical<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Although these AI systems are\u00a0very good at finding fakes<\/a>, they are incapable of understanding the images\u2019 political contexts. It is therefore critical that AI scientists work closely with social scientists in order to properly interpret these findings.<\/p>\n

Our AI systems also categorized images by similarity, which then allowed subject experts to further analyze image clusters based on their narrative content and culturally and politically specific meanings. This is impossible to do at a large scale without AI support.<\/p>\n

For example, a fake image of French president Emmanuel Macron with Ukrainian governor Vitalii Kim may be meaningless to an AI scientist. But to political scientists the image appears to laud Ukrainians\u2019 outsize courage in contrast to foreign leaders who have appeared to be afraid of Russian nuclear threats. The goal was to reinforce Ukrainian doubts about their European allies.<\/p>\n

\"\"

This manipulated image combines French president Emmanuel Macron with Ukranian governor Vitalii Kim. It requires the expertise of political scientists to interpret the creator\u2019s pro-Russian meaning. William Theisen et al.<\/p><\/div>\n

Meme warfare<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The\u00a0shift to visual media<\/a>\u00a0in recent years brings a new type of data that researchers haven\u2019t yet studied much in detail.<\/p>\n

Looking at images can help researchers understand how adversaries frame each other and how this can lead to political conflict. By studying visual content, researchers can see how stories and ideas are spread, which helps us understand the psychological and social factors involved.<\/p>\n

This is especially important for finding more advanced and subtle ways people are influenced. Projects like this also can contribute to\u00a0improving early warning efforts<\/a>\u00a0and reduce the risks of violence and instability.<\/p>\n

Author Bios:<\/strong> Tim Weninger is Collegiate Proessor of Engineering and Ernesto Verdeja is Associate Professor of Peace Studies and Global Politics both at the University of Notre Dame<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Imagine a country with deep political divisions, where different groups don\u2019t trust each other and violence seems likely. Now, imagine a flood of political images, hateful memes and mocking videos from domestic and foreign sources taking over social media. What is likely to happen next? The widespread use of social media during times of political […]\n… learn more→<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[434804],"tags":[12119],"coauthors":[11733],"class_list":["post-76663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-memes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMemes and conflict: Study shows surge of imagery and fakes can precede international and political violence - World leading higher education information and services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/memes-and-conflict-study-shows-surge-of-imagery-and-fakes-can-precede-international-and-political-violence\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Memes and conflict: Study shows surge of imagery and fakes can precede international and political violence - World leading higher education information and services\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Imagine a country with deep political divisions, where different groups don\u2019t trust each other and violence seems likely. 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