{"id":73920,"date":"2024-08-28T00:11:05","date_gmt":"2024-08-28T04:11:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/world.edu\/?p=73920"},"modified":"2024-08-28T00:11:05","modified_gmt":"2024-08-28T04:11:05","slug":"the-australian-government-will-cap-new-international-students-at-270000-in-2025-but-this-number-may-not-be-reached","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/the-australian-government-will-cap-new-international-students-at-270000-in-2025-but-this-number-may-not-be-reached\/","title":{"rendered":"The Australian government will cap new international students at 270,000 in 2025. But this number may not be reached"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"

Couples of international students are walking after studies, holding hands, chatting, smile, enjoying, helping each other with studies. All dressed in comfortsble casual wear, sunny spring day<\/p><\/div>\n

After\u00a0months of speculation<\/a>, the federal government\u00a0has announced<\/a>\u00a0what the cap will be for international students in Australia.<\/p>\n

In 2025, the number of international students starting a course will be set at 270,000. This includes both higher education and vocational education courses.<\/p>\n

This still requires parliamentary approval. The Senate needs to pass legislation to allow the government to set enforceable enrolment caps.<\/p>\n

The government has jumped ahead of its legal authority here because the process of recruiting and enrolling international students for next year is already well underway. Education providers need to know how many students they can take.<\/p>\n

With the caps coming on\u00a0top of major changes<\/a>\u00a0to visa and migration rules for international students \u2013 there have been nine over the past year \u2013 the cumulative consequences are hard to predict.<\/p>\n

While caps will force some universities to reject students they would otherwise have enrolled, other universities may not be able to fully use their international student quota.<\/p>\n

Which students are capped?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The government says the overall cap \u2013 which it calls a \u201cnational planning level\u201d \u2013 will bring new student numbers \u201cback to pre-pandemic levels\u201d. However not all student categories are capped.<\/p>\n

As\u00a0previously announced<\/a>, school students, postgraduate research students, some English language students, and students in \u201cnon-award courses\u201d (a category that includes exchange students), will not be counted towards the cap.<\/p>\n

We also have some new exemptions. These include students with Australian government or \u201ckey partner\u201d foreign government scholarships, students who are part of \u201ctwinning\u201d arrangements (where they do some of their course offshore and then come to Australia), and students from the Pacific and Timor-Leste.<\/p>\n

In 2025 only new international student commencements will be capped. A student will be considered \u201cnew\u201d the first time they start at each education provider. If they start another course at the same provider they will not be counted as new. In 2026 and in later years, the government will have the power to cap all students.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, accurate comparisons between the 2025 caps and previous enrolments are not possible using publicly available data. The definition of a \u201cnew\u201d student is different and there is no published data on foreign scholarship holders or students who start at offshore campuses before coming to Australia.<\/p>\n

What does it mean for unis?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The government says public universities will have a combined cap of around 145,000 new international students.<\/p>\n

The caps have been calculated with 2019 pre-pandemic enrolments at each public university as their base. For universities who increased their enrolments of international students between 2019 and 2023 a formula applies, depending on their \u201cinternational concentration\u201d. This is based on the percentage of their enrolments in Australian campuses who are international students.<\/p>\n

Universities with low concentrations of international student can have all their growth to 2023 included in their 2025 cap. However universities with concentrations above 37% will get to keep only 50% of their growth.<\/p>\n

This is likely to affect the more prestigious universities the most. This includes\u00a0Group of Eight universities<\/a>, such as the University of Sydney, the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and the Australian National University. They will have to cut their commencing student intakes in 2025 compared with 2023 and 2024.<\/p>\n

Private universities and non-university higher education providers, which are mostly small specialist colleges, will only have around 30,000 new international students between them.<\/p>\n

What about vocational education?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The vocational education sector, which includes TAFEs, will have an overall cap of 95,000 new commencing international students.<\/p>\n

The government says vocational education providers with a \u201chigher ratio of international students\u201d will receive lower allocations to encourage them to diversify.<\/p>\n

This will have a significant impact on vocational colleges that primarily serve the international student market.<\/p>\n

Will the caps be reached?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

What the government has announced for caps \u2013 which allows for some growth since 2019 and a longer list of exemptions \u2013 could be seen by some in the public university sector as better than their worst-case scenarios.<\/p>\n

Despite this, the number of new international students in 2025 could easily be much lower than 270,000.<\/p>\n

Migration policy change<\/strong><\/h4>\n

As I have\u00a0previously explained<\/a>, between late 2023 and July 1 2024, the government implemented nine migration changes that made Australia less attractive to international students. A tenth change expected later this year will make permanent migration more difficult for international students.<\/p>\n

By June 2024 these changes had already\u00a0severely affected offshore demand<\/a>\u00a0for vocational education. Demand for higher education still looked normal as of June 2024, but this was before the non-refundable visa application fee more than doubled to A$1,600.<\/p>\n

On the positive side, the government says if its capping legislation passes the Senate it will reverse one of the nine changes \u2013 a\u00a0ministerial direction<\/a>\u00a0on visa processing priorities. This has\u00a0seriously disadvantaged<\/a>\u00a0less prestigious universities and other education providers through slower visa processing.<\/p>\n

Blocking student choice<\/strong><\/h4>\n

While fairer visa processing will help some education providers increase their enrolments, capping popular universities below student demand won\u2019t necessarily help other universities in Australia.<\/p>\n

Few students who want to attend high-prestige universities or want to live in large cities will go to lower prestige or regional universities instead. They just won\u2019t come to Australia.<\/p>\n

At the end of 2024 we are likely to find many universities and other education providers have not reached their cap, pushing the total number of new students well below 270,000.<\/p>\n

The Senate will decide<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Two days of public hearings for the\u00a0Senate inquiry into the capping bill<\/a>\u00a0raised\u00a0many concerns<\/a>\u00a0about caps. This includes worries the caps will lead to\u00a0university job cuts<\/a>. The inquiry will release its report on September 6.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately for the international education sector, the\u00a0Coalition supports<\/a>\u00a0the idea of education-provider level caps. If the Coalition and Labor can agree on how to set provider caps, this part of the legislation will pass in some form. So the ongoing debate will just be about the detail of caps in 2025 and beyond.<\/p>\n

Author Bio:<\/strong> Andrew Norton is Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy at the Australian National University<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After\u00a0months of speculation, the federal government\u00a0has announced\u00a0what the cap will be for international students in Australia. In 2025, the number of international students starting a course will be set at 270,000. This includes both higher education and vocational education courses. This still requires parliamentary approval. The Senate needs to pass legislation to allow the government […]\n… learn more→<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[575],"coauthors":[11733],"class_list":["post-73920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-higher-education","tag-international-students"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Australian government will cap new international students at 270,000 in 2025. 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