{"id":73846,"date":"2024-08-20T00:02:25","date_gmt":"2024-08-20T04:02:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/world.edu\/?p=73846"},"modified":"2024-08-20T00:02:44","modified_gmt":"2024-08-20T04:02:44","slug":"what-is-model-collapse-an-expert-explains-the-rumours-about-an-impending-ai-doom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/what-is-model-collapse-an-expert-explains-the-rumours-about-an-impending-ai-doom\/","title":{"rendered":"What is \u2018model collapse\u2019? An expert explains the rumours about an impending AI doom"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-73847\" src=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Model-Collapse.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"680\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Model-Collapse.jpg 680w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Model-Collapse-250x143.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Artificial intelligence (AI)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/lanceeliot\/2024\/06\/30\/rethinking-the-doomsday-clamor-that-generative-ai-will-fall-apart-due-to-catastrophic-model-collapse\/\">prophets<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/barrier\/corporate\/0df95112-d297-4ae3-a564-234536e06c56\">newsmongers<\/a>\u00a0are forecasting the end of the generative AI hype, with talk of an impending catastrophic \u201cmodel collapse\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>But how realistic are these predictions? And what is model collapse anyway?<\/p>\n<p>Discussed in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2305.17493\">2023<\/a>, but popularised\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-024-07566-y\">more recently<\/a>, \u201cmodel collapse\u201d refers to a hypothetical scenario where future AI systems get progressively dumber due to the increase of AI-generated data on the internet.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>The need for data<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Modern AI systems are built using machine learning. Programmers set up the underlying mathematical structure, but the actual \u201cintelligence\u201d comes from training the system to mimic patterns in data.<\/p>\n<p>But not just any data. The current crop of generative AI systems needs\u00a0<em>high quality<\/em>\u00a0data, and lots of it.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">To train GPT-3, OpenAI needed over 650 billion English words of text \u2013 about 200x more than the entire English Wikipedia. But this required collecting almost 100x more raw data from the internet, up to 98% of which was then filtered and discarded <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/MjF9zf6hAv\">https:\/\/t.co\/MjF9zf6hAv<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Aaron J. Snoswell, PhD (@aaronsnoswell) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/aaronsnoswell\/status\/1823851990625214931?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 14, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>To source this data, big tech companies such as OpenAI, Google, Meta and Nvidia continually scour the internet, scooping up\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.404media.co\/nvidia-ai-scraping-foundational-model-cosmos-project\/\">terabytes of content<\/a>\u00a0to feed the machines. But since the advent of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.midjourney.com\/home\">widely available<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/chatgpt.com\/\">useful<\/a>\u00a0generative AI systems in 2022, people are increasingly uploading and sharing content that is made, in part or whole, by AI.<\/p>\n<p>In 2023, researchers started wondering if they could get away with only relying on AI-created data for training, instead of human-generated data.<\/p>\n<p>There are huge incentives to make this work. In addition to proliferating on the internet, AI-made content is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/crfm.stanford.edu\/2023\/03\/13\/alpaca.html\">much cheaper<\/a>\u00a0than human data to source. It also isn\u2019t\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2024\/jan\/21\/we-need-to-come-together-british-artists-team-up-to-fight-ai-image-generating-software\">ethically<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/te-manu-korihi\/487275\/indigenous-groups-in-nz-us-fear-colonisation-as-ai-learns-languages\">and<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/chatgpt-newspaper-copyright-lawsuit-openai-microsoft-2d5f52d1a720e0a8fa6910dfd59584a9\">legally<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/legal\/getty-images-lawsuit-says-stability-ai-misused-photos-train-ai-2023-02-06\/\">questionable<\/a>\u00a0to collect en masse.<\/p>\n<p>However, researchers found that without high-quality human data, AI systems trained on AI-made data\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2311.16822\">get dumber and dumber<\/a>\u00a0as each model learns from the previous one. It\u2019s like a digital version of the problem of inbreeding.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">I coined a term on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/machinekillspod?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@machinekillspod<\/a> that I feel like needs its own essay: Habsburg AI \u2013 a system that is so heavily trained on the outputs of other generative AI&#8217;s that it becomes an inbred mutant, likely with exaggerated, grotesque features. It joins the lineage of Potemkin AI.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Jathan Sadowski (@jathansadowski) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jathansadowski\/status\/1625245803211272194?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 13, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>This \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2407.12835\">regurgitive training<\/a>\u201d seems to lead to a reduction in the quality and diversity of model behaviour. Quality here roughly means some combination of being helpful, harmless and honest. Diversity refers to the variation in responses, and which people\u2019s cultural and social perspectives are represented in the AI outputs.<\/p>\n<p>In short: by using AI systems so much, we could be polluting the very data source we need to make them useful in the first place.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Avoiding collapse<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Can\u2019t big tech just filter out AI-generated content? Not really. Tech companies already spend a lot of time and money cleaning and filtering the data they scrape, with one industry insider recently sharing they sometimes discard\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/live-news\/20240805-inbred-gibberish-or-just-mad-warnings-rise-about-ai-models\">as much as 90%<\/a>\u00a0of the data they initially collect for training models.<\/p>\n<p>These efforts might get more demanding as the need to specifically remove AI-generated content increases. But more importantly, in the long term it will actually get harder and harder to distinguish AI content. This will make the filtering and removal of synthetic data a game of diminishing (financial) returns.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, the research so far shows we just can\u2019t completely do away with human data. After all, it\u2019s where the \u201cI\u201d in AI is coming from.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Are we headed for a catastrophe?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>There are hints developers are already having to work harder to source high-quality data. For instance,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2303.08774\">the documentation<\/a>\u00a0accompanying the GPT-4 release credited an unprecedented number of staff involved in the data-related parts of the project.<\/p>\n<p>We may also be running out of new human data.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2211.04325\">Some estimates<\/a>\u00a0say the pool of human-generated text data might be tapped out as soon as 2026.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s likely why OpenAI and others are\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/foundationinc.co\/lab\/openai-partnerships-list\/\">racing to shore up exclusive partnerships<\/a>\u00a0with industry behemoths such as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/investor.shutterstock.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/shutterstock-expands-partnership-openai-signs-new-six-year\">Shutterstock<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ap.org\/media-center\/press-releases\/2023\/ap-open-ai-agree-to-share-select-news-content-and-technology-in-new-collaboration\/\">Associated Press<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/newscorp.com\/2024\/05\/22\/news-corp-and-openai-sign-landmark-multi-year-global-partnership\/\">NewsCorp<\/a>. They own large proprietary collections of human data that aren\u2019t readily available on the public internet.<\/p>\n<p>However, the prospects of catastrophic model collapse might be overstated. Most research so far looks at cases where synthetic data replaces human data. In practice, human and AI data are likely to accumulate in parallel, which\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2404.01413\">reduces the likelihood of collapse<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The most likely future scenario will also see an ecosystem of somewhat diverse generative AI platforms being used to create and publish content, rather than one monolithic model. This also increases robustness against collapse.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a good reason for regulators to promote healthy competition by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/1fda45a2-43e0-4c10-b5fb-b6097e3f5c56\">limiting monopolies<\/a>\u00a0in the AI sector, and to fund\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.openmarketsinstitute.org\/publications\/report-ai-in-the-public-interest-confronting-the-monopoly-threat\">public interest technology development<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>The real concerns<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>There are also more subtle risks from too much AI-made content.<\/p>\n<p>A flood of synthetic content might not pose an existential threat to the progress of AI development, but it does threaten the digital public good of the (human) internet.<\/p>\n<p>For instance, researchers\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2307.07367\">found a 16% drop<\/a>\u00a0in activity on the coding website StackOverflow one year after the release of ChatGPT. This suggests AI assistance may already be reducing person-to-person interactions in some online communities.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/1600910X.2022.2137546\">Hyperproduction<\/a>\u00a0from AI-powered content farms is also making it harder to find content that isn\u2019t\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2024-05-22\/james-raptis-resigns-from-acm-following-links-to-ai-plagiarism\/103879762\">clickbait stuffed with advertisements<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s becoming impossible to reliably distinguish between human-generated and AI-generated content. One method to remedy this would be watermarking or labelling AI-generated content, as I and many others have\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apo.org.au\/node\/323896\">recently highlighted<\/a>, and as reflected in recent Australian government\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/consult.industry.gov.au\/supporting-responsible-ai\">interim legislation<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s another risk, too. As AI-generated content becomes systematically homogeneous, we risk losing\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2404.03502\">socio-cultural diversity<\/a>\u00a0and some groups of people could even experience\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5210\/fm.v29i7.13375\">cultural erasure<\/a>. We urgently need\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/admscentre.org.au\/\">cross-disciplinary research<\/a>\u00a0on the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/research.qut.edu.au\/genailab\/\">social and cultural challenges<\/a>\u00a0posed by AI systems.<\/p>\n<p>Human interactions and human data are important, and we should protect them. For our own sakes, and maybe also for the sake of the possible risk of a future model collapse.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Author Bio:<\/strong> Aaron J. Snoswell is a Research Fellow in AI Accountability at the Queensland University of Technology<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Artificial intelligence (AI)\u00a0prophets\u00a0and\u00a0newsmongers\u00a0are forecasting the end of the generative AI hype, with talk of an impending catastrophic \u201cmodel collapse\u201d. But how realistic are these predictions? And what is model collapse anyway? Discussed in\u00a02023, but popularised\u00a0more recently, \u201cmodel collapse\u201d refers to a hypothetical scenario where future AI systems get progressively dumber due to the increase of [&hellip;]\n&hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/what-is-model-collapse-an-expert-explains-the-rumours-about-an-impending-ai-doom\/\" class=\"more\">learn more&rarr;<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[435060],"coauthors":[11733],"class_list":["post-73846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business-politics","tag-model-collapse"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What is \u2018model collapse\u2019? An expert explains the rumours about an impending AI doom - World leading higher education information and services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/what-is-model-collapse-an-expert-explains-the-rumours-about-an-impending-ai-doom\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What is \u2018model collapse\u2019? 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Discussed in\u00a02023, but popularised\u00a0more recently, \u201cmodel collapse\u201d refers to a hypothetical scenario where future AI systems get progressively dumber due to the increase of [&hellip;]\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/what-is-model-collapse-an-expert-explains-the-rumours-about-an-impending-ai-doom\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"World leading higher education information and services\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-08-20T04:02:25+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-20T04:02:44+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Model-Collapse.jpg\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kevin\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kevin\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/world.edu\\\/what-is-model-collapse-an-expert-explains-the-rumours-about-an-impending-ai-doom\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/world.edu\\\/what-is-model-collapse-an-expert-explains-the-rumours-about-an-impending-ai-doom\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Kevin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/world.edu\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/42c1c1d5ff7ffbdf0bd50ed94c6ae6ee\"},\"headline\":\"What is \u2018model collapse\u2019? 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