{"id":69759,"date":"2023-09-12T01:45:28","date_gmt":"2023-09-12T05:45:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/world.edu\/?p=69759"},"modified":"2023-09-12T01:45:28","modified_gmt":"2023-09-12T05:45:28","slug":"how-to-prove-youve-discovered-alien-life-new-research","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/how-to-prove-youve-discovered-alien-life-new-research\/","title":{"rendered":"How to prove you\u2019ve discovered alien life \u2013 new research"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-69760\" src=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/extraterrestrial-life.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"680\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/extraterrestrial-life.jpg 680w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/extraterrestrial-life-250x145.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In the past few decades,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/times-scientists-thought-they-discovered-extraterrestrial-alien-life-signs-2023-2?r=US&amp;IR=T\">several phenomena<\/a>\u00a0have led to excited speculation in the scientific community that they might indeed be indications that there is extraterrestrial life. It will no doubt happen again.<\/p>\n<p>Recently, two very different examples sparked excitement. In 2017, it was the mystery interstellar object\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/evidence-of-aliens-what-to-make-of-research-and-reporting-on-oumuamua-our-visitor-from-space-106711\">\u2018Oumuamua<\/a>. And in 2021, it was the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/venus-could-it-really-harbour-life-new-study-springs-a-surprise-145981\">possible discovery of the gas phosphine<\/a>\u00a0in the clouds of Venus.<\/p>\n<p>In both cases, it seemed possible that the phenomenon indicated some kind of extraterrestrial biological source. Notably, physicist Avi Loeb from Harvard University\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/has-earth-been-visited-by-an-alien-spaceship-harvard-professor-avi-loeb-vs-everybody-else-155509\">argued in favour<\/a>\u00a0of the oddly shaped \u2018Oumuamua being an alien spaceship.<\/p>\n<p>And phosphine in the atmosphere of a rocky planet is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.liebertpub.com\/doi\/full\/10.1089\/ast.2018.1954\">proposed to be<\/a>\u00a0a strong signature for life, as it is continuously produced by microbes on Earth.<\/p>\n<p>These are just two of the latest cases of a long list of examples of such initially promising phenomena. But although a few of the examples are still controversial, most have turned out to have other explanations (it wasn\u2019t aliens).<\/p>\n<p>So how can we be sure we\u2019ve come to the right conclusion for something as subtle as the presence of a certain gas or a strange looking space rock? In our new paper\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.liebertpub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1089\/ast.2022.0084\">published in the journal Astrobiology<\/a>, we have proposed a technique for reliably evaluating such evidence.<\/p>\n<p>The word \u201cpossible\u201d is strange, with a rather unfortunate degree of flexibility. There\u2019s a sense in which it is possible that I\u2019ll meet King Charles III today, but at the same time it is extraordinarily unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>Many shouts of: \u201cIt might be aliens!\u201d should be interpreted in this (strained) sense. By contrast, we often use the word \u201cmight\u201d to express something that has high probability, as in \u201cit might snow today.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The concept of possibility incorporates these extremes, and everything in-between. Newspapers might capitalise on this flexibility with a cheeky headline that appears to indicate that something is a bit more exciting than it actually is. But the scientific world needs to express itself with rigour, transparently conveying the degree of confidence justified by the evidence.<\/p>\n<p>Some would turn to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/ufos-how-to-calculate-the-odds-that-an-alien-spaceship-has-been-spotted-162269\">Bayes\u2019 Theorem<\/a>, a common statistical formula, which gives the probability (Pr) of something, given some evidence.<\/p>\n<p>One could, optimistically, input the available evidence into the Bayes formula, and achieve as output a number between 0 and 1 (where 0.5 is a 50:50 chance that a signal is produced by aliens). But the Bayesian approach doesn\u2019t really help when it comes to extraterrestrial life.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_69761\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-69761\" class=\"size-full wp-image-69761\" src=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Baysium.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"79\" srcset=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Baysium.jpg 600w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Baysium-250x33.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-69761\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Bayesian formula for alien evidence, produced by Anders Sandberg, University of Oxford. Author provided<\/p><\/div>\n<p>For example, it requires an input for the prior probability that aliens exist. And intuitions about that vary dramatically (estimates for the number of inhabited planets in our galaxy\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/jamiecartereurope\/2021\/06\/23\/there-is-only-one-other-planet-in-our-galaxy-that-could-be-earth-like-say-scientists\/\">range from one to billions<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>It also requires a value for the probability of the phenomenon in question occurring naturally \u2013 not caused by aliens. For some kinds of \u201cbiosignatures\u201d (such as a dinosaur skeleton) we know that the probability of it occurring without life is incredibly low. But for many others (say, a particular blend of gases) we don\u2019t know much at all.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_69762\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-69762\" class=\"size-full wp-image-69762\" src=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/ExploredsoFar.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"310\" srcset=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/ExploredsoFar.jpg 600w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/ExploredsoFar-250x129.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-69762\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">How much of the relevant possibility space have we explored? Peter Vickers, CC BY-SA<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Here one meets with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/global.oup.com\/academic\/product\/exceeding-our-grasp-9780195174083?cc=gb&amp;lang=en&amp;\">the problem of \u201cunconceived alternatives\u201d<\/a>. Put simply: we may know too little about alternative sources of the phenomenon. Perhaps we just haven\u2019t explored the space of possible causes of the relevant phenomenon very much.<\/p>\n<p>After all, humans have only carried out a limited amount of rigorous research \u2013 we don\u2019t know about every single process that could produce a certain gas in an atmosphere.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>New approaches<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>In 2021, a Nasa-affiliated group\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-021-03804-9.epdf?sharing_token=aMvAzNSKTDpeQ_Lx50lBO9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OiHZ7kRMaxJS4ikXfsEfuhWNXQC4W7SsC52JCjUDnSSqLC5BhXbWxxUcFJQ3KnlmY6LAuQF02dgmfPAEQqFuQhHT7iq8uOqnhGqUWJGAFWKU9xwVrg8ofZtBSQm0hNMoQ%3D\">published a paper<\/a>\u00a0setting out the Confidence of Life Detection (CoLD) framework, designed to solve this problem.<\/p>\n<p>It recommends seven steps to verifying a discovery, from ruling out contamination to getting follow-up observations of a predicted biological signal in the same region.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_69763\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-69763\" class=\"size-full wp-image-69763\" src=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GolDFarmework.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"661\" srcset=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GolDFarmework.jpg 600w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GolDFarmework-227x250.jpg 227w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-69763\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The \u2018CoLD\u2019 framework. (Green et al., 2021), with permission, Author provided (no reuse)<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Unfortunately, the problem of unconceived alternatives remains a serious challenge. Level 4 in the framework requires that \u201call known non-biological sources of signal\u201d are shown to be implausible. But this only starts to mean something when the relevant space of different possibilities has been thoroughly explored.<\/p>\n<p>Our new paper, published by the group\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.durham.ac.uk\/research\/institutes-and-centres\/humanities-engaging-science-society\/research\/eurica-project-leverhulme\/\">Exploring Uncertainty and Risk in Contemporary Astrobiology<\/a>\u00a0(EURiCA), has come up with another proposal.<\/p>\n<p>Or, rather, it is an idea borrowed from another context. For many years, it has been imperative for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to be clear on how confident they are concerning a great many propositions about climate change.<\/p>\n<p>In order to express their degree of confidence,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/site\/assets\/uploads\/2017\/08\/AR5_Uncertainty_Guidance_Note.pdf\">a framework has been in place<\/a>\u00a0for more than 20 years now, which combines the quantity and quality of the evidence with the degree to which experts agree (the degree of consensus, if any). While this has been robustly challenged, it has stood the test of time in the face of extraordinary scrutiny and the highest possible stakes.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_69764\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-69764\" class=\"size-full wp-image-69764\" src=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/IPCC.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"264\" srcset=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/IPCC.jpg 600w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/IPCC-250x110.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-69764\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The IPCC uncertainty framework. Mastrandrea et al. (2010), with permission., Author provided (no reuse)<\/p><\/div>\n<p>This same framework could be used in the context of discovering extraterrestrial life. A dedicated team of experts would make a judgement based not only on their assessment of the scientific evidence (X-axis in image above), but also the extent of agreement across the community (Y-axis).<\/p>\n<p>So the worst assessment would have low agreement among experts and limited evidence while the best would have high agreement and robust evidence.<\/p>\n<p>What of unconceived alternatives? The community of experts will only agree that purported evidence for life is \u201crobust\u201d if the relevant possibilities have been thoroughly explored. If they haven\u2019t, there\u2019s a good chance some other explanation will turn up in the long run.<\/p>\n<p>Astrobiologists mustn\u2019t limit their research to the study of the signatures of life. They must also carefully investigate the possible ways that non-biological processes might mimic those same signatures.<\/p>\n<p>Only when we know that, might we finally be able to say, \u201cThis time, it really could be aliens.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Author Bio:<\/strong> Peter Vickers is Professor in Philosophy of Science at Durham University and Sean McMahon is the Chancellor&#8217;s Fellow in Astrobiology at The University of Edinburgh<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the past few decades,\u00a0several phenomena\u00a0have led to excited speculation in the scientific community that they might indeed be indications that there is extraterrestrial life. It will no doubt happen again. Recently, two very different examples sparked excitement. In 2017, it was the mystery interstellar object\u00a0\u2018Oumuamua. And in 2021, it was the\u00a0possible discovery of the [&hellip;]\n&hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/how-to-prove-youve-discovered-alien-life-new-research\/\" class=\"more\">learn more&rarr;<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[11907],"coauthors":[11733],"class_list":["post-69759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-science-tech","tag-extraterrestrial-life"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How to prove you\u2019ve discovered alien life \u2013 new research - World leading higher education information and services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/how-to-prove-youve-discovered-alien-life-new-research\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to prove you\u2019ve discovered alien life \u2013 new research - World leading higher education information and services\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the past few decades,\u00a0several phenomena\u00a0have led to excited speculation in the scientific community that they might indeed be indications that there is extraterrestrial life. 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