{"id":65133,"date":"2022-10-06T14:47:05","date_gmt":"2022-10-06T18:47:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/world.edu\/?p=65133"},"modified":"2022-10-07T00:20:33","modified_gmt":"2022-10-07T04:20:33","slug":"heat-and-drought-a-lethal-cocktail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/heat-and-drought-a-lethal-cocktail\/","title":{"rendered":"Heat and drought, a lethal cocktail"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

As the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warms the Earth, the global temperature rises and, as a consequence, heat waves\u00a0<\/span>increase in duration and intensity<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Record temperatures are coming in faster and more furiously than researchers expected.\u00a0And this raises questions about what to expect in the future.<\/span><\/p>\n

The fact that temperatures have crossed the threshold much faster than expected could be due to incomplete climate models.\u00a0In principle, they simulate heat waves and the increase in intensity and probability of extreme heat on a large scale reasonably well.\u00a0However, at smaller scales, the changes in annual daily maximum temperatures do not follow the same pattern.<\/span><\/p>\n

The results and observations\u00a0<\/span>for some regions<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, such as the eastern United States and some parts of Asia, allow us to better understand the influence of local factors and natural variability in the local pattern of heat waves.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, the balance of moisture, changes in land use and soil moisture must be taken into account to achieve more reliable projections of the coming changes in temperatures.<\/span><\/p>\n

More mortality, forest fires and crop failure<\/strong><\/h4>\n

It is important to anticipate them because persistent heat waves have serious repercussions on ecosystems and societies.\u00a0Three in particular stand out:\u00a0<\/span>excess mortality<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>forest fires<\/span><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span>crop failures<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

The summer of 2022 has been the one that has caused the most deaths in Spain in the last 72 years.\u00a0No fewer than 120,000 people have lost their lives.\u00a0In fact, 2022 has even surpassed the summer of the pandemic (2020) in deaths.\u00a0The causes have not yet been fully understood, but undoubtedly the long, intense and recurrent heat waves have had a lot to do with it.<\/span><\/p>\n

It cannot be denied that the heat suffered has been an absolute record.\u00a0When on average Spanish summers have had 7 days of heat waves, in 2022 it has had 42. It has been the hottest summer recorded in Spain and 31 provinces have recorded the highest thermal values \u200b\u200bin their history.<\/span><\/p>\n

These high temperatures not only kill by the well-known “heat stroke”, but also\u00a0<\/span>aggravate<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pre-existing pathologies, such as cardiovascular, respiratory, pulmonary, renal, gastrointestinal or even neurological diseases.\u00a0In addition, it must be taken into account that a determining factor in this excess mortality is also the collapse of health care centers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spain has led the records of excess mortality (deaths above the average of a country for a given time) throughout Europe, followed at a distance by Germany and Sweden.\u00a0The daily mortality monitoring system for all causes (\u00a0<\/span>MoMo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0), prepared by the Carlos III Health Institute (ISCIII), estimates that in Spain there have been just over 4,700 deaths related to excess temperature between the end of April and early September.<\/span><\/p>\n

It has, however, been a lethal heat stroke in much of Europe, with absolute records for both heat and deaths in several countries such as the United Kingdom.\u00a0A\u00a0similar situation\u00a0<\/span>was experienced in the southern summer .<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Heat and drought, an explosive mix<\/strong><\/h4>\n

If we learned anything from\u00a0<\/span>the 2003 drought in Europe<\/span><\/a>\u00a0it is that when heat and drought combine they amplify their respective impacts on natural ecosystems and have devastating effects.\u00a0That year, the combination generated a major crisis in the primary productivity of forest ecosystems and the death of more than 100,000 Europeans.<\/span><\/p>\n

Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Impact Research researcher Efi Rousi and collaborators\u00a0<\/span>have identified Europe as a heat wave hotspot<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0The old continent shows upward trends in these extreme events that are three to four times faster compared to the rest of the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes during the last 42 years.<\/span><\/p>\n

This accelerated trend is linked to dynamic atmospheric changes that are mainly associated with an increase in the frequency and persistence of double-jet states over Eurasia.\u00a0The\u00a0<\/span>jet stream<\/span><\/a>\u00a0has a great influence on the climate and on the determination of climatic regions on the planet and the fact that it splits into two currents is something that science is beginning to understand and estimate its repercussions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Double-jet states are particularly important for western European heat waves, explaining up to 35% of temperature variability.\u00a0Its upward trend can largely explain the acceleration of heat waves in Western Europe, and about 30% of it in the entire European region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Certain configurations of the\u00a0<\/span>jet stream<\/span><\/a>\u00a0are linked to thermal extremes in different mid-latitude regions, key regions for grain production.\u00a0This implies that they can endanger global food security and social stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

This research, coupled with observations related to\u00a0<\/span>the Azores anticyclone and<\/span><\/a>\u00a0western European drought, advances our ability to assess and anticipate environmental, social, and geopolitical risks under unmitigated climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n

Author Bio:<\/strong> Ferdinand Valladares is a Research Professor at the Department of Biogeography and Global Change at the National Museum of Natural Sciences (MNCN-CSIC)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warms the Earth, the global temperature rises and, as a consequence, heat waves\u00a0increase in duration and intensity\u00a0.\u00a0Record temperatures are coming in faster and more furiously than researchers expected.\u00a0And this raises questions about what to expect in the future. The fact that temperatures have […]\n… learn more→<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[128],"tags":[433657],"coauthors":[11733],"class_list":["post-65133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-heat-and-drought"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHeat and drought, a lethal cocktail - World leading higher education information and services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/heat-and-drought-a-lethal-cocktail\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Heat and drought, a lethal cocktail - World leading higher education information and services\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warms the Earth, the global temperature rises and, as a consequence, heat waves\u00a0increase in duration and intensity\u00a0.\u00a0Record temperatures are coming in faster and more furiously than researchers expected.\u00a0And this raises questions about what to expect in the future. 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