{"id":58388,"date":"2021-07-27T08:00:18","date_gmt":"2021-07-27T12:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/world.edu\/?p=58388"},"modified":"2021-07-26T23:29:12","modified_gmt":"2021-07-27T03:29:12","slug":"fight-for-control-threatens-to-destabilize-and-fragment-the-internet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/fight-for-control-threatens-to-destabilize-and-fragment-the-internet\/","title":{"rendered":"Fight for control threatens to destabilize and fragment the internet"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-58393\" src=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/broken-bridge.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"680\" height=\"474\" srcset=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/broken-bridge.png 680w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/broken-bridge-250x174.png 250w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/broken-bridge-600x418.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>You try to use your credit card, but it doesn\u2019t work. In fact, no one\u2019s credit card works. You try to go to some news sites to find out why, but you can\u2019t access any of those, either. Neither can anyone else. Panic-buying ensues. People empty ATMs of cash.<\/p>\n<p>This kind of catastrophic pan-internet meltdown is more likely than most people realize.<\/p>\n<p>I direct the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cltc.berkeley.edu\/internet-atlas\">Internet Atlas Project<\/a>\u00a0at the University of California, Berkeley. Our goal is to shine a light on long-term risks to the internet. We produce indicators of weak points and bottlenecks that threaten the internet\u2019s stability.<\/p>\n<p>For example, where are\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nickmerrill.substack.com\/p\/undersea-cables\">points of fragility in the global connectivity of cables<\/a>? Physical cables under the sea deliver\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/internethealthreport.org\/2019\/the-new-investors-in-underwater-sea-cables\/\">95% of the internet\u2019s voice and data traffic<\/a>. But some countries, like Tonga, connect to only one other country, making them vulnerable to cable-clipping attacks.<\/p>\n<p>Another example is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/developer.mozilla.org\/en-US\/docs\/Glossary\/CDN\">content delivery networks<\/a>, which websites use to make their content readily available to large numbers of internet users. An\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/media-telecom\/finiancial-times-new-york-times-bloomberg-news-websites-down-2021-06-08\/\">outage at the content delivery network Fastly<\/a>\u00a0on June 8, 2021, briefly severed access to the websites of Amazon, CNN, PayPal, Reddit, Spotify, The New York Times and the U.K. government.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>The biggest risks to the global internet<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>We take measurements at various layers of the internet\u2019s technological stack, from cables to content delivery networks. With those measurements, we identify weak points in the global internet. And from those weak points, we build theories that help us understand what parts of the internet are at risk of disruption, whom those disruptions will affect and how severely, and predict what would make the internet more resilient.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, the internet is facing twin dangers. On one side, there\u2019s the threat of total consolidation. Power over the internet has been increasingly concentrated primarily in the hands of a few, U.S.-based organizations. On the other side, there\u2019s fragmentation. Attempts to challenge the status quo, particularly by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/global-opinions\/how-russia-and-china-are-attempting-to-rewrite-cyberworld-order\/2021\/03\/30\/16030226-9190-11eb-a74e-1f4cf89fd948_story.html\">Russia and China<\/a>, threaten to destabilize the internet globally.<\/p>\n<p>While there\u2019s no single best path for the internet, our indicators can help policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, businesses, activists and others understand if their interventions are having their intended effect. For whom is the internet becoming more reliable, and for whom is is it becoming more unstable? These are the critical questions. About\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/617136\/digital-population-worldwide\/\">3.4 billion people are just now getting online<\/a>\u00a0in countries including Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu. What kind of internet will they inherit?<\/p>\n<h4><strong>A US-controlled internet<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Since at least 2015, the core services that power the internet have become increasingly centralized in the hands of U.S. corporations. We estimate that U.S. corporations, nonprofits and government agencies could block\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nickmerrill.substack.com\/p\/how-the-us-could-block-the-internet\">a cumulative 96% of content on the global internet<\/a>\u00a0in some capacity.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-58400\" src=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/USInternetControl.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" srcset=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/USInternetControl.png 680w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/USInternetControl-250x140.png 250w, https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/USInternetControl-600x336.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. Department of Justice has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15779%2FZ384Q3M\">long used court orders aimed at tech providers<\/a>\u00a0to block global access to content that\u2019s illegal in the U.S., such as copyright infringements. But lately, the U.S. federal government has been leveraging its jurisdiction more aggressively. In June, the DOJ used a court order to briefly seize\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/notices-iran-linked-websites-say-they-have-been-seized-by-us-2021-06-22\/\">an Iranian news site<\/a>\u00a0because the department said it was spreading disinformation.<\/p>\n<p>Due to interlocking dependencies on the web, such as content delivery networks, one misstep in applying this technique could take down a key piece of internet infrastructure, making a widespread outage\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nickmerrill.substack.com\/p\/cache-rules-everything-around-me\">more likely<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, U.S.-based technology companies also risk wreaking havoc. Consider Australia\u2019s recent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-australia-56165015\">spat with Facebook over paying news outlets for their content<\/a>. At one point, Facebook blocked all news on its platform in Australia. One consequence was that many people in Fiji, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2021\/feb\/19\/facebooks-australia-ban-threatens-to-leave-pacific-without-key-news-source\">temporarily lost a key news source<\/a>\u00a0because they rely on prepaid cellphone plans that feature discounted access to Facebook. As these\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nickmerrill.substack.com\/p\/flashpoints\">skirmishes<\/a>\u00a0increase in frequency, countries worldwide are likely to suffer disruptions to their internet access.<\/p>\n<h4>A splinternet<\/h4>\n<p>Naturally, not everyone is happy with this U.S.-led internet.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/gadgets\/2021\/04\/russias-twitter-throttling-may-give-censors-never-before-seen-capabilities\/\">Russia throttles Twitter traffic<\/a>.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzfeednews.com\/article\/carolineodonovan\/google-project-dragonfly-employees-quitting\">China blocks access to Google<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>These domestic maneuvers certainly threaten localized meltdowns. India now regularly\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/india\/70-of-global-internet-shutdowns-in-2020-were-in-india-report\/articleshow\/81321980.cms\">shuts down the internet regionally during civil unrest<\/a>. But, in aggregate, they present a more global threat:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/cltc-bulletin\/internet-fragmentation-beyond-free-and-closed-cb8b1dfcd16a\">internet frgamentation<\/a>. A fragmented internet threatens speech, trade and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/techstream\/the-consequences-of-a-fragmenting-less-global-internet\/\">global cooperation in science<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It also increases the risk of cyberattacks on core internet infrastructure. In a global internet, attacks on infrastructure hurt everyone, but walled-off national internets would change that calculus. For example,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2019\/03\/21\/65940\/russia-wants-to-cut-itself-off-from-the-global-internet-heres-what-that-really-means\/\">Russia has the capacity to disconnect itself from the rest of the world\u2019s internet<\/a>\u00a0while maintaining service domestically. With that capacity, it could\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nickmerrill.substack.com\/p\/cache-bail\">attack core global internet infrastructure<\/a>\u00a0with less risk of upsetting its domestic population. A sophisticated attack against a U.S. company could trigger a large-scale internet outage.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>The future of the internet<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>For much of its history, the internet has been imperfectly, but largely, open. Content could be accessed anywhere, across borders. Perhaps this openness is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nickmerrill.substack.com\/p\/is-internet-centralization-good\">because, rather than in spite, of the U.S.\u2018s dominance<\/a>\u00a0over the internet.<\/p>\n<p>Whether or not that theory holds, the U.S.\u2019s dominance over the internet is unlikely to persist. The status quo faces challenges from the U.S.\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/chinai.substack.com\/p\/chinai-142-digitalized-public-governance\">adversaries<\/a>, its\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/germany-france-gaia-x-cloud-platform-eu-tech-sovereignty\/\">historical allies<\/a>\u00a0and its\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/01\/14\/796160524\/apple-declines-doj-request-to-unlock-pensacola-gunmans-phones\">own domestic tech companies<\/a>. Absent action, the world will be left with some mixture of unchecked U.S. power and ad-hoc, decentralized skirmishes.<\/p>\n<p>In this environment, building a stable and transnational internet for future generations is a challenge. It requires delicacy and precision. That\u2019s where work like ours comes into play. To make the internet more stable globally, people need measurements to understand its chokepoints and vulnerabilities. Just as central banks watch measures of inflation and employment when they decide how to set rates, internet governance, too, should rely on indicators, however imperfect.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Author Bio:<\/strong> N<span class=\"fn author-name\">ick Merrill is a <\/span>Research Fellow at the University of California, Berkeley<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You try to use your credit card, but it doesn\u2019t work. In fact, no one\u2019s credit card works. You try to go to some news sites to find out why, but you can\u2019t access any of those, either. Neither can anyone else. Panic-buying ensues. People empty ATMs of cash. This kind of catastrophic pan-internet meltdown [&hellip;]\n&hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/fight-for-control-threatens-to-destabilize-and-fragment-the-internet\/\" class=\"more\">learn more&rarr;<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":58393,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[401077],"coauthors":[17200],"class_list":["post-58388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science-tech","tag-splinternet"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fight for control threatens to destabilize and fragment the internet - World leading higher education information and services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/fight-for-control-threatens-to-destabilize-and-fragment-the-internet\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fight for control threatens to destabilize and fragment the internet - World leading higher education information and services\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"You try to use your credit card, but it doesn\u2019t work. 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