{"id":54501,"date":"2020-10-22T00:00:58","date_gmt":"2020-10-22T07:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/world.edu\/?p=54501"},"modified":"2020-10-21T12:59:48","modified_gmt":"2020-10-21T19:59:48","slug":"the-myth-of-electric-cars-why-we-also-need-to-focus-on-buses-and-trains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/the-myth-of-electric-cars-why-we-also-need-to-focus-on-buses-and-trains\/","title":{"rendered":"The myth of electric cars: Why we also need to focus on buses and trains"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"California recently announced that it plans to\u00a0ban the sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035<\/a>, Ontario has invested $500 million in the\u00a0production of electric vehicles (EVs)<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Tesla is quickly becoming the world\u2019s highest-valued car company<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It almost seems like owning an electric vehicle is a silver bullet in the fight against climate change, but it isn\u2019t. What we should also be focused on is whether anyone should use a private vehicle at all.<\/p>\n

As a researcher in sustainable mobility, I know this answer is unsatisfying. But this is where my\u00a0latest research has led<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Battery EVs, such as the Tesla Model 3 \u2014 the\u00a0best selling EV in Canada<\/a>\u00a0in 2020 \u2014 have no tailpipe emissions. But they do have higher production and manufacturing emissions than conventional vehicles, and often run on electricity that comes from fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

Almost\u00a018 per cent<\/a>\u00a0of the electricity generated in Canada came from fossil fuels in 2019, ranging from\u00a0zero in Qu\u00e9bec<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a090 per cent in Alberta<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Researchers like me compare the greenhouse gas emissions of an alternative vehicle, such as an EV, with those of a conventional vehicle over a vehicle lifetime, an exercise known as a life-cycle assessment. For example, a Tesla Model 3 compared with a Toyota Corolla can provide up to 75 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases emitted per kilometre travelled in Qu\u00e9bec, but no reductions in Alberta.<\/p>\n

Hundreds of millions of new cars<\/strong><\/h4>\n

To avoid extreme and irreversible impacts on ecosystems, communities and the overall global economy, we must keep the increase in global average temperatures to less than 2 C \u2014 and ideally 1.5 C \u2014 above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100.<\/p>\n

We can translate these climate change targets into actionable plans. First, we estimate greenhouse gas emissions budgets using energy and climate models for each sector of the economy and for each country. Then we simulate future emissions, taking alternative technologies into account, as well as future potential economic and societal developments.<\/p>\n

I looked at the U.S. passenger vehicle fleet, which adds up to about 260 million vehicles, to answer a simple question: Could the greenhouse gas emissions from the sector be brought in line with climate targets by replacing gasoline-powered vehicles with EVs?<\/p>\n

The results were shocking. Assuming no changes to travel behaviours and a decarbonization of 80 per cent of electricity, meeting a 2 C target could require up to 300 million EVs, or 90 per cent of the projected U.S. fleet, by 2050. That would require all new purchased vehicles to be electric from 2035 onwards.<\/p>\n

\"\"

EV charging stations in Oslo, Norway. (Shutterstock)<\/p><\/div>\n

To put that into perspective, there are currently\u00a0880,000 EVs<\/a>\u00a0in the U.S., or 0.3 per cent of the fleet. Even the most optimistic projections from the\u00a0International Energy Agency<\/a>\u00a0suggest that the U.S. fleet will only be at about 50 per cent electrified by 2050.<\/p>\n

Massive and rapid electrification<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Still, 90 per cent is theoretically possible, isn\u2019t it? Probably, but is it desirable?<\/p>\n

In order to hit that target, we\u2019d need to very rapidly overcome all the challenges associated with EV adoption, such as\u00a0range anxiety<\/a>, the\u00a0higher purchase cost<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0availability of charging infrastructure<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A rapid pace of electrification would severely challenge\u00a0the electricity infrastructure<\/a>\u00a0and the supply chain of many\u00a0critical materials<\/a>\u00a0for the batteries, such as lithium, manganese and cobalt. It would require vast capacity of renewable energy sources and transmission lines, widespread charging infrastructure, a co-ordination between two historically distinct sectors (electricity and transportation systems) and rapid innovations in electric battery technologies. I am not saying it\u2019s impossible, but I believe it\u2019s unlikely.<\/p>\n

So what? Shall we give up, accept our collective fate and stop our efforts at electrification?<\/p>\n

On the contrary, I think we should re-examine our priorities and dare to ask an even more critical question: Do we need that many vehicles on the road?<\/p>\n

Buses, trains and bikes<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Simply put, there are three ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger transport: avoid the need to travel, shift the transportation modes or improve the technologies. EVs only tackle one side of the problem, the technological one.<\/p>\n

And while EVs do decrease emissions compared with conventional vehicles, we should be comparing them to buses, trains and bikes. When we do, their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions disappears because of their life cycle emissions and the limited number of people they carry at one time.<\/p>\n

\"\"

An electric tram in Sapporo, Japan. (Shutterstock)<\/p><\/div>\n

If we truly want to solve our climate problems, we need to deploy EVs along with other measures, such as public transit and active mobility. This fact is critical, especially given the recent\u00a0decreases in public transit ridership in the U.S.<\/a>, mostly due to increasing vehicle ownership, low gasoline prices and the advent of ride-hailing (Uber, Lyft).<\/p>\n

Governments need to massively invest in public transit, cycling and walking infrastructure to make them larger, safer and more reliable. And we need to reassess our transportation needs and priorities.<\/p>\n

The road to decarbonization is long and winding. But if we are willing to get out of our cars and take a shortcut through the forest, we might get there a lot faster.<\/p>\n

Author Bio:<\/strong> Alexandre Milovanoff is a Postdoctoral Researcher, Environmental Engineering at the University of Toronto<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

California recently announced that it plans to\u00a0ban the sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035, Ontario has invested $500 million in the\u00a0production of electric vehicles (EVs)\u00a0and\u00a0Tesla is quickly becoming the world\u2019s highest-valued car company. It almost seems like owning an electric vehicle is a silver bullet in the fight against climate change, but it isn\u2019t. What […]\n… learn more→<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":54502,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[128],"tags":[357454],"coauthors":[11733],"class_list":["post-54501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","tag-electric-cars"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe myth of electric cars: Why we also need to focus on buses and trains - World leading higher education information and services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/the-myth-of-electric-cars-why-we-also-need-to-focus-on-buses-and-trains\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The myth of electric cars: Why we also need to focus on buses and trains - World leading higher education information and services\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"California recently announced that it plans to\u00a0ban the sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035, Ontario has invested $500 million in the\u00a0production of electric vehicles (EVs)\u00a0and\u00a0Tesla is quickly becoming the world\u2019s highest-valued car company. 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