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In an effort to crack down on international students and scholars who overstay their visas, the Trump administration is seeking to implement a\u00a0new set of rules<\/a>\u00a0that would make it more difficult for them to remain in the U.S.<\/p>\n Among other things, the proposed rules would require students and scholars from certain countries to leave within either two or four years. This would be irrespective of whether or not they\u2019ve completed their degrees and research. Only those who could prove a \u201ccompelling\u201d reason to stay longer would be allowed to do so.<\/p>\n But the rule, which has already drawn more than\u00a020,000 comments<\/a>\u00a0from the public, comes with a steep price tag. It would also undermine America\u2019s interest in attracting talent from abroad and, ironically, it would do little to actually curtail the problem of visa overstays that it purports to solve. That is my analysis as a\u00a0higher education administrator<\/a>\u00a0who specializes in international education.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Department of Homeland Security\u2019s proposed\u00a0tighter restrictions<\/a>\u00a0are outlined in a\u00a0256-page document<\/a>.<\/p>\n Which of the two new proposed maximum time limits \u2013 two or four years \u2013 would apply would depend on various criteria. Currently, these students and scholars are admitted for \u201cduration of status<\/a>,\u201d which means they may stay for as long as their academic endeavors require, as long as they follow the terms of their visa.<\/p>\n Things that would subject a student or scholar to a two-year cap include being from certain countries, pursuing particular courses of study and whether or not their university fully participates in\u00a0E-Verify<\/a>, a web-based federal document verification system.<\/p>\n There are other changes as well.<\/p>\n For instance, students will have 30 days \u2013\u00a0half the time currently allotted<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 to leave the country after completing their academic program. Any petitions for extensions of stay would need to be approved by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Certain activities, such as participating in off-campus internships, would be prohibited while this paperwork was pending.<\/p>\n This new process also would require students and scholars to pay\u00a0US$455 in new filing fees<\/a>.<\/p>\n Federal data show<\/a>\u00a0it takes four years and four months, on average, to complete a bachelor\u2019s degree. In fact, only\u00a044% of first-time, full-time students<\/a>\u00a0attending a four-year institution in 2012 completed a bachelor\u2019s degree within four years. For international students, 52% graduate within four years. That means nearly half of all international students take more than four years to finish college.<\/p>\n There are\u00a0many reasons<\/a>\u00a0students often require more than four years to graduate. Those reasons could range from pursuing more than one major to being involved in extracurricular activities or having family obligations.<\/p>\n For graduate students, it could be that the research they are doing has been delayed for some reason. In fact, the\u00a0National Science Foundation<\/a>\u00a0reports that it takes an average of five years and 10 months to complete a doctorate.<\/p>\n The\u00a0uncertainty<\/a>\u00a0over whether or not a degree could be completed within the time limits set by the proposed rule would\u00a0further weaken<\/a>\u00a0the ability of the U.S. to attract global academic talent.<\/p>\n The proposed rule builds upon the Trump administration\u2019s more than\u00a0400 attempts<\/a>\u00a0to reshape the U.S. immigration system through executive actions.<\/p>\n While a key argument used to justify the proposed changes is that people who overstay visas may endanger national security, the government estimates that just\u00a01.52% of all international students and exchange visitors<\/a>\u00a0overstay. The actual rate may be even lower given that the government\u00a0overestimates overstays<\/a>\u00a0because of a\u00a0lack of capacity<\/a>\u00a0to properly record departures.<\/p>\n International students and scholars are\u00a0very closely tracked<\/a>\u00a0by their colleges and universities. While the proposed rule would add additional caseloads to\u00a0an already overwhelmed<\/a>\u00a0government agency and a paper-based immigration system that the Department of Homeland Security itself describes as \u201coutdated<\/a>,\u201d it may do little to prevent overstays. On the contrary, I believe the new rule may force some students to make the impossible choice between committing an overstay and abandoning their educational dream.<\/p>\n In June,\u00a0U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced<\/a>\u00a0that it faced a $1.2 billion shortfall. Over the next decade, DHS estimates the cost to implement the new rule will be as high as\u00a0$2 billion<\/a>. While filing fees for extension requests will help USCIS increase revenue,\u00a0research<\/a>\u00a0shows that estimates for costs of compliance with a new regulation are often incomplete.<\/p>\n DHS predicts the higher education sector will\u00a0lose $93 million<\/a>\u00a0during the first year of the rule and roughly $30 million each year thereafter because of staff time spent on training, implementation and supporting petitions for longer stays.<\/p>\n Other federal and state agencies, such as divisions of motor vehicles, as well as employers needing to\u00a0reverify employment eligibility<\/a>\u00a0on a more regular basis, will face similar burdens.<\/p>\n In the end, I believe the economy will\u00a0lose billions<\/a>\u00a0should the new restrictions further accelerate the\u00a0decline in international enrollment<\/a>.<\/p>\n Global competition in science and technology is increasing.<\/p>\n Consider the rise of other nations in critical areas such as\u00a0artificial intelligence<\/a>,\u00a0quantum computing<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0synthetic biology<\/a>.<\/p>\n This has serious\u00a0implications for economic and national security<\/a>. Specifically, the most scientifically and technologically advanced nations tend to\u00a0dominate global market share in innovative industries<\/a>, as measured by leading companies, exports and foreign direct investments. They also have the\u00a0most advanced military capabilities<\/a>, ranging from autonomous unmanned vehicles to hypersonic and directed-energy weapons.<\/p>\n Additionally, some nations are using the current political climate to\u00a0lure foreign talent away from the U.S.<\/a><\/p>\n International students play a critical role in helping the nation excel in science and technology.<\/p>\n Their enrollment helps universities\u00a0continue to offer STEM majors and graduate programs<\/a>. These majors and programs\u00a0benefit U.S. students<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0employers<\/a>.<\/p>\n Consider that\u00a01 in 3<\/a>\u00a0people with science and engineering jobs in the U.S. were born in another country. This includes more than half of all\u00a0biomedical researchers<\/a>\u00a0and nearly a quarter of\u00a0pharmaceutical manufacturing industry<\/a>\u00a0employees.<\/p>\n While many international students leave the country after earning their degree, those who choose to stay provide a\u00a0source of high-skilled talent<\/a>\u00a0that ensures our country remains globally competitive in science and technology.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/world.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/USVisacountries.jpg\")
<\/p>\nTime limits<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Enough time?<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Visa overstays by the numbers<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Close tabs<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Implications for U.S. competitiveness<\/strong><\/h4>\n
The role of international students<\/strong><\/h4>\n