{"id":52806,"date":"2020-06-17T14:11:55","date_gmt":"2020-06-17T21:11:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/world.edu\/?p=52806"},"modified":"2020-06-17T14:11:55","modified_gmt":"2020-06-17T21:11:55","slug":"how-counter-cyclical-are-university-enrolments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/how-counter-cyclical-are-university-enrolments\/","title":{"rendered":"How counter-cyclical are university enrolments?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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As travel bans disrupt international education and the global recession squeezes public and charitable funding<\/a> sources, universities stand to lose revenue<\/a> while costs rise<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But there are also opportunities. It\u2019s common knowledge that when the economy thrives, university enrolments fall, whereas a recession causes enrolments to rise. But what institutions and governments need to know is what types of enrolments are sensitive to the economic cycle, by how much, and how soon. Could a rise in domestic enrolments mitigate the losses from international students? Data from New Zealand provide some hints.<\/p>\n

In 2009, as the global financial crisis (GFC) loomed, the country\u2019s Ministry of Education released an analysis<\/a> of how enrolments in post-compulsory education tracked the economic cycle following the severe recession of the early 1990s.<\/p>\n

That recession saw significant increases in retention in senior secondary school and in tertiary education. Moreover, there was a strong association between higher school retention and increases in participation in bachelor\u2019s study the following year, presumably because there were more eligible young people.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the progression rate from bachelor\u2019s to postgraduate qualifications also matched changes in the unemployment rate as graduates delayed entry to the labour market.<\/p>\n

Following the GFC, bachelor\u2019s enrolments kept rising, peaking in 2012, when unemployment also peaked, before returning to stability as the unemployment rate fell below 5 per cent. In the early years of the recession, enrolments tracked the unemployment rate closely.<\/p>\n

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