{"id":51648,"date":"2020-04-01T00:00:44","date_gmt":"2020-04-01T07:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/world.edu\/?p=51648"},"modified":"2020-03-31T17:38:08","modified_gmt":"2020-04-01T00:38:08","slug":"covid-19-could-shrink-the-earnings-of-2020-graduates-for-years-to-come","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.edu\/covid-19-could-shrink-the-earnings-of-2020-graduates-for-years-to-come\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 could shrink the earnings of 2020 graduates for years to come"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Before the coronavirus pandemic forced\u00a0businesses<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0schools<\/a>\u00a0to close, high school and college graduates from the Class of 2020 could have expected to graduate into the\u00a0strongest job market<\/a>\u00a0in 50 years.<\/p>\n

Now, due to massive\u00a0economic fallout<\/a>, the Class of 2020 is at risk of\u00a0graduating into a recession<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This souring economy has important implications for more than 3.5 million students expected to\u00a0graduate from high school<\/a>\u00a0in 2020, and the more than 1.3 million students expected to graduate from a two-year or four-year\u00a0college<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0social distancing<\/a>\u00a0that has upended business as usual<\/a>\u00a0is causing a wave of\u00a0layoffs and furloughs<\/a>, with an unprecedented\u00a03.3 million<\/a>\u00a0new unemployment claims filed in the week ending March 21.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s just the beginning. Experts predict the unemployment rate will eventually rise from 3.5% in February to\u00a0as much as 30%<\/a>\u00a0by June.<\/p>\n

We are\u00a0economists<\/a>\u00a0who study the link between\u00a0education<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0employment<\/a>. Should a recession occur, we believe young workers and new grads may be hit hard. History and research also show that the looming economic downturn could have distinct consequences for the Class of 2020 that outlast the economic downturn itself.<\/p>\n

Bigger toll for young workers<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Younger workers typically have more trouble finding and maintaining employment in a recession. For example, during the Great Recession, the unemployment rate for all workers\u00a0peaked at 10%<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 about half of the\u00a019.2% peak for workers between 16 and 24 years old<\/a>.<\/p>\n

During a recession, people attempting to enter or re-enter the labor market will have a harder time finding employment and therefore have less access to employer-provided health insurance, potentially leaving both their physical and financial well-being at greater risk.\u00a0About 14% of Americans age 19-24 are uninsured<\/a>, much higher than the 8.5% nationwide rate of uninsurance.<\/p>\n

Second, younger Americans\u00a0disproportionately work<\/a>\u00a0in the food, retail, leisure and hospitality industries. Those workplaces are all being\u00a0hit hard<\/a>\u00a0as consumers follow government orders to stay home.<\/p>\n

Finally, new graduates are not in the best position to benefit from the US$2 trillion federal coronavirus relief package<\/a>\u00a0that, among other things, is designed to help employers keep or rehire workers. This relief will do more for people who were already working than new graduates seeking to enter the job market or find a better paying job.<\/p>\n

Effects could last several years<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The Class of 2020 could feel the effects of a recession well after the recession has ended. Prior research has found that U.S. college students who graduated during a recession\u00a0earned 10% less<\/a>\u00a0the first year after they completed their studies than would otherwise be expected. And the negative effects lasted over the next seven years.<\/p>\n

Why? Researchers attribute these losses to college graduates\u00a0taking jobs that pay less<\/a>\u00a0right after they graduated.<\/p>\n

Research on Canadian students suggests the effects\u00a0may be long-lasting<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 those who graduated in recession years had initial income 9% below students who graduated in better economic conditions, with the gap closing to zero over the next 10 years.<\/p>\n

In the past, the negative effects of graduating in a recession did not affect everyone the same. Highly skilled graduates, those graduating from more selective colleges and universities or who majored in fields that usually lead to high salaries, tend to recover early hits to their earnings by changing jobs and employers once the economy rebounds. All else equal, it\u00a0pays more<\/a>\u00a0to major in engineering than theater. And these differences are magnified after recessions.<\/p>\n

What young workers can do<\/strong><\/h4>\n

1. Stay healthy<\/strong><\/p>\n

While the individual risks of COVID-19 may seem low for them,\u00a0young people can nevertheless get quite sick<\/a>, and they can transmit the virus throughout their communities \u2013 including to their more vulnerable friends, neighbors and relatives. It is worth stating the obvious that becoming ill with COVID-19 would make it much harder to work or to find work, and that becoming infectious could worsen the health and financial security of others.<\/p>\n

2. Pay attention to relief efforts<\/strong><\/p>\n

Grads can actively seek out benefits for which they or their employers may be eligible.\u00a0Unemployment relief<\/a>, for example, may be available to students who have lost jobs, even if they were working part-time, and partial benefits may be available for those whose hours were reduced as a result of the virus. In addition to expanded\u00a0unemployment insurance provisions<\/a>, federal relief efforts include\u00a0payroll support for businesses<\/a>, direct\u00a0cash support<\/a>\u00a0to all individuals, temporary\u00a0suspension of student loan payments<\/a>, and a pause on foreclosures and evictions for both\u00a0homeowners<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0renters<\/a>. Diverse state, local, and private benefits are popping up as well, such as\u00a0child care<\/a>\u00a0for a broader definition of emergency workers, and\u00a0meals for children<\/a>\u00a0whose schools are closed.<\/p>\n

3. Consider staying in school<\/strong><\/p>\n

Some graduates may be better off by staying in school to pursue another degree. They may have plenty of company: Enrollment\u00a0typically rises<\/a>\u00a0during recessions. Staying in school will make graduating during a recession less likely and could help graduates land a higher-paying job later on. Continuing students should be cognizant of additional student debt, but also the potential\u00a0boost in earnings<\/a>\u00a0from further education. Another consideration is that the implicit cost of being in school \u2013 the income given up because an individual is in school instead of working \u2013 is now lower than normal.<\/p>\n

We close on a note of optimism. Despite dire short-run predictions for the labor market, economic improvement is\u00a0expected throughout the second half of 2020 and into 2021<\/a>. Although we have yet to see the full extent of layoffs and overall economic slowdown induced by COVID-19,\u00a0analysts<\/a>\u00a0currently expect that the U.S. will get back to work once the virus is under control.<\/p>\n

Author Bios:<\/strong> Celeste K. Carruthers is Associate Professor of Economics, Larry Kessler is a Research Associate Professor – Economics and Marianne Wanamaker is an Associate Professor of Economics. all at the University of Tennessee<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Before the coronavirus pandemic forced\u00a0businesses\u00a0and\u00a0schools\u00a0to close, high school and college graduates from the Class of 2020 could have expected to graduate into the\u00a0strongest job market\u00a0in 50 years. Now, due to massive\u00a0economic fallout, the Class of 2020 is at risk of\u00a0graduating into a recession. This souring economy has important implications for more than 3.5 million students […]\n… learn more→<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":51649,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[11714],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-51648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-higher-education","tag-recession-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCOVID-19 could shrink the earnings of 2020 graduates for years to come - World leading higher education information and services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/world.edu\/covid-19-could-shrink-the-earnings-of-2020-graduates-for-years-to-come\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"COVID-19 could shrink the earnings of 2020 graduates for years to come - World leading higher education information and services\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Before the coronavirus pandemic forced\u00a0businesses\u00a0and\u00a0schools\u00a0to close, high school and college graduates from the Class of 2020 could have expected to graduate into the\u00a0strongest job market\u00a0in 50 years. 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