Scenarios – News, Research and Analysis – The Conversation

Thinking through scenarios allows land managers to prepare for many potential outcomes. Benjamin Slyngstad via USGS

May 27, 2025

Managing forests and other ecosystems under rising threats requires thinking across wide‑ranging scenarios

Kyra Clark-Wolf, University of Colorado Boulder; Brian W. Miller, U.S. Geological Survey, and Imtiaz Rangwala, University of Colorado Boulder

Park and forest managers can’t rely on the past any longer to understand future risks. Fires, pests and climate change are changing the game.

A South African street vendor awaits customers. The country has some of the highest inequality in the world. Mujahid Safodien/AFP via Getty Images

October 4, 2022

A basic income grant for South Africa: more money in poor people’s pockets, but at a heavy cost

Hylton Hollander, Stellenbosch University; Daan Steenkamp, Stellenbosch University, and Roy Havemann, Stellenbosch University

An unfunded expansion of the social transfer system could lead to even worse economic outcomes — the medicine should not be worse than the disease.

President Ramaphosa’s government is easing the lockdown because of unsustainable economic costs. Getty Images

June 8, 2020

South Africa’s use of COVID‑19 modelling has been deeply flawed. Here’s why

Seán Mfundza Muller, University of Johannesburg

The South African government and some of its advisors want to have the best of both worlds. They want to use incorrect predictions by early models about the COVID-19 pandemic to claim success.

Keeping the economy open may be hard if the virus spreads uncontrollably. Shutterstock

May 27, 2020

How South Africa can best balance control of COVID‑19 and avoid economic disaster

Miriam Altman, University of Johannesburg

South Africa’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic must now shift from a centrally regulated approach to one that enables participation and compliance by communities, workers and businesses.

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